Thursday, January 31, 2008

Direct effects of the blizzard on Baidu

As per Xinhua:

As of January 28, China Telecom's
winter loss was being estimated at
RMB56.9 million with 3.14 million
households affected by 5,681
out-of-service network locations
in South China, according to the
report. China Netcom is facing a
RMB3 million loss from problems
affecting 66,000 households.

That is a total of 3.2 million
landlines. China's net population
is 210 million, of which about 73%
surf from home (CNNIC 20th survey).
That is about 150 million users.
The 3.2 million affected would be
around 2% of the total. Assuming
their outage lasts 9 days, that is
10% of their total usage in a
quarter of 90 days. 2% x 10% = 0.2%
Mobile services have been hit worse,
but Internet wireless traffic is
not significant in numbers.

The net direct effect should be around
0.2% for the quarter. The indirect
effect is harder to quantify.

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