Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Pali: Baidu may not get most of competitor's share

Believes Google generates most of its China revenue from
google.com, not google.cn. Shutting down China operations
will not cost Google much China revenue. Hence Baidu's
revenue pickup from the expected withdrawal will not be
as high as the market seems to estimate. Also claims Google
has changed its tone, and is more likely to stay, with some
concessions from the Chinese Government.

Credit Suisse (Wallace Cheung) believes China is likely to
block google.com periodically if Google leaves China. Neither
analyst has commented in detail of the potential fallout on
tie-ups with China Mobile (wireless search), China Unicom
(G-phone/Android), Xunlei (downloads), Tianya (SNS) and

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